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Electoral College Map, 10-21-2012

Electoral Map 10-21-12

Only two visible changes: Arizona goes from dark orange to red; New Hampshire goes from green to yellow. There are now seven states within the 3% margin (yellow) range, and these will decide the election. Of these seven, all but two are infinitesimally leaning toward Obama rather than Romney; consequently the odds still favor an Obama victory by about 2:1. Still, I expect Election Night to be a very late-running show.

Interestingly, the probability of a popular/electoral flip has been growing; there is now about a 6% chance, according to Nate Silver, that Romney will win the popular vote but lose the election.

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