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Electoral College Map, 10-14-2012

This is the first map I've posted here since September 29, although I posted another on FB in between times.

A number of significant changes from 9-29:

  • Pennsylvania goes from light blue to green
  • North Carolina goes from yellow to light orange
  • Indiana goes from orange to red
  • Missouri goes from light orange to orange.
  • Wisconsin goes from light blue to green
  • Colorado goes from green to yellow
  • Nevada goes from green to yellow
  • Ohio goes from green to yellow
  • Virginia goes from green to yellow

These are all changes in Romney's favor, and all occurred since the first debate.  The poll changes since October 3rd have been stunning and unprecedented.

What dominates the map now are the pale colors — that is, there are a lot of states in the "less than 3% margin" zone, and a bunch more in the "3%-to-5%" zone.  Nate Silver's model still predicts an Obama victory, but by the smallest of probabilities and electoral margins.  This may turn out to be the most interesting election in 12 years.  Have the coffee ready on November 6th.

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kenschneyer

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